Mile High Mids

Talkin’ Big Sky scenarios

If Northern Colorado beats Weber State at home on Thursday, the Bears have an excellent chance of making the Big Sky Tournament (only the top 6 out of 9 qualify) if they can follow up that stunner with a road win over Portland State next Tuesday (February 28). Do that, and the Bears just need Montana to win at home against depleted Montana State — a highly likely occurrence — to wrap up the #6 seed. Or, even if MSU pulls the upset in Missoula, there would still be various other results that could get UNC in, like Eastern Washington losing two of its final three. In other words, Northern Colorado would “need help,” but they’d be pretty likely to get it.

Unfortunately, Northern Colorado is pretty unlikely to beat Weber State. So, what are their chances of making the tournament if they lose on Thursday?

I’ve spent way too much time thinking about this and calculating it, and I believe there are precisely two scenarios in which UNC can lose to Weber, yet make the conference tournament. Both scenarios involve a ton of results breaking precisely the right way. Both are therefore unlikely to happen. But hey, you never know.

The various tiebreakers and scenarios that lead to this list are too complicated to fully explain, though the relative positioning of Eastern Washington (EWU), Idaho State (ISU) and Portland State (PSU) is very important in Scenario 2. But ultimately, you’re going to have to trust me on this. I’m pretty sure, albeit not 100% confident, that this is right:

Scenario 1 (EWU loses out):
ISU beats EWU, Thursday 2/23 (at ISU)
Sacramento State loses to eitherPSU 2/23 (at Sacto) and/orISU 2/25 (at ISU)
PSU beats EWU, Saturday 2/25 (at PSU)
ISU beats EWU again, Tuesday 2/28 (at EWU)
UNC beats PSU, Tuesday 2/28 (at PSU)

Scenario 2 (EWU wins out, MSU loses out):
EWU beats ISU, Thursday 2/23 (at ISU)
Sacramento State loses to eitherPSU 2/23 (at Sacto) and/orISU 2/25 (at ISU)
Montana beats MSU, Saturday 2/25 (at Montana)
EWU beats PSU, Saturday 2/25 (at PSU)
NAU beats MSU, Monday 2/27 (at MSU)
EWU beats ISU again, Tuesday 2/28 (at EWU)
UNC beats PSU, Tuesday 2/28 (at PSU)

The end result of Scenario 1: UNC and EWU both finish 6-10, tied for sixth place. They split their head-to-head series, and they both went 0-2 against Weber State, Montana and Idaho State. But UNC went 1-1 against Portland State, while EWU went 0-2 against PSU. So UNC wins the tiebreaker on that basis.

In Scenario 2, it’s MSU, instead of EWU, that’d be tied for sixth place with UNC at 6-10. EWU, far from being tied for sixth, would instead be alone in third place — which is critical for the tiebreaker between the Bears and Bobcats, because UNC went 1-1 against the Eagles, whereas MSU went 0-2 against the Eagles. So with EWU, instead of ISU or PSU, in third place, UNC wins the tiebreaker over MSU. (Got all that?)

Incidentally, if either scenario happens except that Sacramento State wins out, Sacramento State, which is currently 4-10 and left for dead in the conference race, actually gets in. I think.

Which scenario Northern Colorado would need to root for, again assuming they lose to Weber State, depends on the result of Thursday-night game between Eastern Washington and Idaho State, which will be played simultaneously to the UNC-Weber game. If EWU loses, the Bears would need to root for Scenario 1; if EWU wins, the Bears would need to root for Scenario 2.

All things considered, Scenario 1 looks a lot more likely (relatively speaking), as it involves two fewer steps, and doesn’t require anybody to lose to 1-13 Northern Arizona, like Scenario 2 does. So, if UNC loses on Thursday, they’re better off if Eastern Washington does, too. But regardless of what happens in the EWU-ISU and Sacto-PSU games Thursday, the Bears cannot actually be mathematically eliminated just yet — because an EWU loss, while destroying Scenario 1, would keep Scenario 2 alive.

In all likelihood, if Weber State wins on Thursday, the Bears will be eliminated sometime between when they leave the floor in Greeley on Thursday and when they take the floor in Portland next Tuesday. Their light would go out, to use the TMM terminology, on either Saturday the 25th or Monday the 27th.

However, if either of the above scenarios occurs, then UNC would tip off against Portland State next Tuesday with its slim shot at a conference tournament title & NCAA return trip still alive (and another simultaneous EWU-ISU game to scoreboard-watch).