Fun with KenPom percentages

I already told you about the scenarios whereby Northern Colorado could lose to Weber State tomorrow, yet still qualify for the Big Sky Tournament. But what are the odds of each scenario? To answer this question (that nobody except me was asking), we turn to the great Ken Pomeroy!

We’ll start with the simplest scenario — UNC wins its way in, with only minimal “help” needed. Here are the necessary steps, with KenPom’s percentage odds of each result.

2/23 UNC > Weber (34%) AND 2/28 UNC > PSU (27%) [combined odds 9.2%] 

PLUS AT LEAST ONE OF THE FOLLOWING (i.e., the “help” UNC would need):

  • 2/25 Montana>MSU (95%) OR 2/27 NAU>MSU (15%) AND ISU wins at least once (77.2%) [total odds 68.1%]; OR
  • Montana>MSU AND 2/27 NAU>MSU [total odds 14.3%]; OR
  • Eastern Washington loses at least 2 of its last 3 [33.1%]; OR
  • Portland State loses to Sacramento State (42%) and EWU (34%) [total odds 14.3%]

Did I say “simplest”? Heh. Anyway, if I’m doing the math right, the odds of at least one of the four bullet points occurring are roughly 84%. So, if UNC sweeps its last two games, there’s an 84% chance, give or take, that the Bears get in. Unfortunately, there’s just over a 9% chance that the Bears will sweep their last two games, for an overall total of around 7.7% odds the Bears make the tourney by winning their last two games.

That might not sound too promising, but the 7.7% chance looks downright rosy compared with the Bears’ odds if they lose to Weber tomorrow night. Take a look at the KenPom numbers for the two scenarios I outlined on Monday:

Scenario 1 (EWU loses out): [total odds: 0.86%]
ISU beats EWU, Thursday 2/23 (at ISU) [37%]
Sacramento State loses to eitherPSU 2/23 (at Sacto) [58%] and/orISU 2/25 (at ISU) [57%]
PSU beats EWU, Saturday 2/25 (at PSU) [66%]
ISU beats EWU again, Tuesday 2/28 (at EWU) [16%]
UNC beats PSU, Tuesday 2/28 (at PSU) [27%]

Scenario 2 (EWU wins out, MSU loses out): [total odds: 0.57%]
EWU beats ISU, Thursday 2/23 (at ISU) [63%]
Sacramento State loses to eitherPSU 2/23 (at Sacto) [58%] and/orISU 2/25 (at ISU) [57%]
Montana beats MSU, Saturday 2/25 (at Montana) [95%]
EWU beats PSU, Saturday 2/25 (at PSU) [34%]
NAU beats MSU, Monday 2/27 (at MSU) [15%]
EWU beats ISU again, Tuesday 2/28 (at EWU) [84%]
UNC beats PSU, Tuesday 2/28 (at PSU) [27%]

Because the scenarios are so specific, with so many steps, the odds become very low, as you can see.

If you want to think of it slightly differently, as in “what are the odds of this scenario if we assume UNC beats PSU” (i.e., what are the odds UNC gets the “help” it needs), the odds are a slightly more palatable 3.2% for Scenario 1 and 2.1% for Scenario 2. So, in other words, there’s a better than 5% chance UNC will get the help it needs if UNC loses to Weber State and then beats Portland State.

Oh… and what if they beat Weber, then lose to Portland? That’s much better for tiebreakers, and UNC’s odds are substantially better as a result. Take the scenarios above, but eliminate the Sacramento State stuff from both scenarios, and eliminate everything from Scenario 2 except the requirement that Montana and NAU both beat Montana State. The odds of Scenario 1 become 3.9% (i.e., the odds of EWU losing out); the odds of Scenario 2 become 14.3% (i.e., the odds of MSU losing out). So, that’s not bad! An overall 18.2% chance that UNC gets in, if it beats Weber but then loses to PSU.

So, to review…

  • 84% chance UNC makes Big Sky tourney if it wins out
  • 5% chance UNC makes tourney if it loses to Weber, beats Portland State
  • 14% chance UNC makes tourney if it beats Weber, loses to Portland State
  • 0% chance UNC makes tourney if it loses out

Last but not least, what of Denver? The Pioneers are competing for a #3 seed in the Sun Belt. If they beat North Texas, they are guaranteed that seed. (KenPom gives the Pioneers an 82% chance of beating the Mean Green.)

But what if Denver loses to North Texas? To get the #3 seed anyway, they’d need two things to happen:

  • 2/23 UALR > North Texas [60%]
  • 2/25 LA-Monroe > LA-Lafayette [8%]

The odds of both things happening are 4.8%. So DU has essentially a 5% chance of backing into a #3 seed, even with a loss. Otherwise the Pioneers will be either a #4 or #5 seed. I’m not going to figure out the odds of those seeds, because it makes absolutley no difference other than who is wearing the “home” whites in the 4/5 quarterfinal game. The #4 and #5 seeds are in precisely the same position in the bracket.

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