UNC eliminated; DU plays for #3 seed Sunday

After Northern Colorado lost to Weber State on Thursday — here’s my full 800GP recap of that game — the Bears were left hanging by a thread in the battle for the Big Sky’s sixth and final postseason spot. Well, on Saturday night, the thread snapped. Portland State beat Eastern Washington, 69-64, clinching third place and thus eliminating UNC from postseason contention (because PSU finishing ahead of EWU in the standings means Montana State would beat Northern Colorado in any potential tiebreaker for sixth place at 6-10).

So, for Northern Colorado, it ended in a loss. By Eastern Washington.

Meanwhile, in the Sun Belt, Denver will host North Texas on Sunday afternoon, Senior Day, in a battle for for seeding position — and we now know exactly what that means, with the rest of the league having completed its regular season. Here’s my unofficial mockup of the bracket, with only the #3, 4 and 5 spots to be decided, all based on tomorrow’s game:

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Just a Fool’s Hope

Northern Colorado lost to Weber State tonight, 88-71. It was a competitive contest for most of the game, but Weber was the superior team, and pulled away in the end. A full recap will follow in a day or two. Above is a video of the team’s lone senior, Mike Proctor, getting a standing ovation — and getting teary-eyed — as he left his home floor for the last time, in the game’s final minute.

The Bears’ loss, coupled with a win by Eastern Washington and a loss by Sacramento State, clarifies the picture in terms of what UNC needs to earn a Big Sky tournament berth. They’re not eliminated yet, but now they need an absolutely perfect sequence of events — a single deviation, a single unwanted result, will eliminate them. Here is the sequence, with the KenPom odds of each result: [FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE: Percentages have been updated to reflect new KenPom data.]

Saturday 2/25, 7pm: Montana beats Montana State (at Montana) [94%]
Saturday 2/25, 7pm: Eastern Washington beats Portland State (at PSU) [34%]
Monday 2/27, 7pm: Northern Arizona beats Montana State (at MSU) [16%]
Tuesday 2/28, 7pm: Eastern Washington beats Idaho State (at EWU) [85%]
Tuesday 2/28, 8pm: Northern Colorado beats Portland State (at PSU) [25%]

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Fun with KenPom percentages

I already told you about the scenarios whereby Northern Colorado could lose to Weber State tomorrow, yet still qualify for the Big Sky Tournament. But what are the odds of each scenario? To answer this question (that nobody except me was asking), we turn to the great Ken Pomeroy!

We’ll start with the simplest scenario — UNC wins its way in, with only minimal “help” needed. Here are the necessary steps, with KenPom’s percentage odds of each result.

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Talkin’ Big Sky scenarios

If Northern Colorado beats Weber State at home on Thursday, the Bears have an excellent chance of making the Big Sky Tournament (only the top 6 out of 9 qualify) if they can follow up that stunner with a road win over Portland State next Tuesday (February 28). Do that, and the Bears just need Montana to win at home against depleted Montana State — a highly likely occurrence — to wrap up the #6 seed. Or, even if MSU pulls the upset in Missoula, there would still be various other results that could get UNC in, like Eastern Washington losing two of its final three. In other words, Northern Colorado would “need help,” but they’d be pretty likely to get it.

Unfortunately, Northern Colorado is pretty unlikely to beat Weber State. So, what are their chances of making the tournament if they lose on Thursday?

I’ve spent way too much time thinking about this and calculating it, and I believe there are precisely two scenarios in which UNC can lose to Weber, yet make the conference tournament. Both scenarios involve a ton of results breaking precisely the right way. Both are therefore unlikely to happen. But hey, you never know.

The various tiebreakers and scenarios that lead to this list are too complicated to fully explain, though the relative positioning of Eastern Washington (EWU), Idaho State (ISU) and Portland State (PSU) is very important in Scenario 2. But ultimately, you’re going to have to trust me on this. I’m pretty sure, albeit not 100% confident, that this is right:

Scenario 1 (EWU loses out):
ISU beats EWU, Thursday 2/23 (at ISU)
Sacramento State loses to eitherPSU 2/23 (at Sacto) and/orISU 2/25 (at ISU)
PSU beats EWU, Saturday 2/25 (at PSU)
ISU beats EWU again, Tuesday 2/28 (at EWU)
UNC beats PSU, Tuesday 2/28 (at PSU)

Scenario 2 (EWU wins out, MSU loses out):
EWU beats ISU, Thursday 2/23 (at ISU)
Sacramento State loses to eitherPSU 2/23 (at Sacto) and/orISU 2/25 (at ISU)
Montana beats MSU, Saturday 2/25 (at Montana)
EWU beats PSU, Saturday 2/25 (at PSU)
NAU beats MSU, Monday 2/27 (at MSU)
EWU beats ISU again, Tuesday 2/28 (at EWU)
UNC beats PSU, Tuesday 2/28 (at PSU)

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Collapse at EWU may doom Bears

Northern Colorado squandered a 17-point lead at Eastern Washington tonight, losing by 3 in a heartbreaker, and now the Bears probably need to stun Big Sky leader Weber State at home next Thursday night in order to qualify for the conference tournament.

Here is where things now stand. Remember, the top 6 teams make the tournament; the bottom 3 do not.

1. Weber State 13-1 (remaining games: @UNC 2/23, @Montana 2/28)
2. Montana 12-1 (NAU 2/23, MSU 2/25, Weber 2/28)
3. Portland State 7-6 (@Sacto 2/23, EWU 2/25, UNC 2/28)
4. Idaho State 7-6 (EWU 2/23, Sacto 2/25, @EWU 2/28)
5. Eastern Washington 6-7 (@ISU 2/23, @PSU 2/25, ISU 2/28)
6. Montana State 6-8 (@Montana 2/25, NAU 2/27)
7. Northern Colorado 5-9 (Weber 2/23, @PSU 2/28)
8. Sacramento State 4-10 (PSU 2/23, @ISU 2/25)
9. Northern Arizona 1-13 (@Montana 2/23, @MSU 2/27)

Importantly in the event of tiebreakers, Northern Colorado is 1-1 against Eastern Washington, Montana State, and Sacramento State. Indeed, all of the teams in spots #5 through #8 are 1-1 against each other, except that EWU swept MSU.

(UNC is 0-2 against Idaho State, and 0-1 against Portland State with a game remaining. It’s 0-1 against Weber, 0-2 against Montana, and 2-0 against NAU, as you’d expect.)

If Northern Colorado could beat Weber State, it would own any conceivable tiebreaker (except against Idaho State) in any scenario where head-to-head is inconclusive, since the Bears would be the only tied team to have beaten either Weber or Montana. In that case, assuming the Bears also win at Portland State the following week, a Montana home win over Montana State would be enough to get UNC into the league tournament. But of course, beating Weber State is just a tremendously tall order, even in Greeley.

If, on the other hand, UNC loses to Weber, but then wins at Portland State, the Bears would finish 6-10, and would likely need Eastern Washington to lose its final 3 games straight, in which case UNC would win the tiebreaker vs. EWU for the sixth and final spot. Alternatively, Montana State — which just lost its best player — could lose at Montana (likely) and at home against NAU (far less likely) to also finish 6-10. But even then, Northern Colorado would lose a two-way tiebreaker against Montana State unless Eastern Washington finishes ahead of both Portland State and Idaho State in the standings. (If both MSU and EWU lose out, and UNC goes 1-1, EWU and UNC get in.) So basically, if they lose to Weber but beat PSU, the Bears need EWU to either win out or lose out. 

If your head is spinning, don’t worry, mine is too. But here’s the bottom line: the game against Weber State is not quite mathematically a must-win, but realistically, it’s pretty close. Northern Colorado either needs to beat Weber State at home (and then beat Portland State on the road), or it needs a whole lot of help to get into the postseason.

Updating the Big Sky and Sun Belt races

Both Denver and Northern Colorado took big steps forward in their respective conference races on Saturday. DU beat Florida International to stay in the thick of the race for the #3 overall seed in the Sun Belt, and just as important, avoided a slide toward the #6 seed and an opening-round game in Sun Belt. Meanwhile, UNC kept its head above water in the fight to qualify for the Big Sky tournament, which requires a top 6 finish in the regular-season standings.

I’ll start with Northern Colorado, since they have the most at stake: their very postseason hopes, not just seeding and bracketing, are on the line. The Bears are still on the outside looking in, but they’re now alone in 7th place, with a huge, almost must-win game Wednesday at the 6th-place team. Here’s the relevant part of the standings:

3. Idaho State 7-6 (games remaining: EWU, Sacto, @EWU)
4. Portland State 6-6 (Sacto, @Sacto, EWU, UNC)
5. Montana State 6-7 (Weber, @Montana, NAU)
6. Eastern Washington 5-7 (UNC, @ISU, @PSU, ISU)
7. Northern Colorado 5-8 (@EWU, Weber, @PSU)
8. Sacramento State 4-9 (@PSU, PSU, ISU)

If UNC wins out, they’re very likely in, as they’d own the tiebreaker with EWU. (I say “very likely” because I don’t know if a multi-way tie might change that equation.) The big question is, can they lose to Weber State (or at Portland State), win their other two games, and get in at 7-9? Let’s see…

With Montana State facing the conference’s two best teams and its worst team, it’s a fair bet they’ll finish 7-9. With three winnable home games, Portland State is fairly likely to end up no worse than 8-8. Idaho State, likewise, will probably win at least 1 game to get to 8-8 or better. Conversely, Sacramento State will probably lose at last 1 game, to finish 6-10 or worse. So, if UNC finishes 7-9, it would probably come down to Eastern Washington, Montana State and Northern Colorado for that sixth and final spot.

MSU and UNC split the season series, but assuming UNC beats EWU on Wednesday, the Bears would be 2-0 against the Eagles. The Eagles, for their part, are 2-0 against the Bobcats. So in a hypothetical three-way tie for fifth, UNC would be 3-1 against the group, MSU 2-2, and EWU 1-3. That means the Bears get in. Alternatively, in a two-way tie for sixth with just EWU (i.e., if MSU pulls off an upset and goes 2-1 or better down the stretch), the Bears would win the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Eagles, and get in. So, bottom line, it’s simply a question of whether EWU loses one (or more) of its final three games after (hypothetically) losing to UNC, in order to create that tiebreaker (or fall behind UNC altogether). If they do, UNC gets either the #5 or #6 spot, even if the Bears finish 7-9. Probably. But again, it all hinges on Northern Colorado winning at Eastern Washington on Wednesday. They’ve gotta do that.

Now, to the Sun Belt. Here is where things stand after Saturday’s action, in the battles for seeds #2 through #6:

2. UALR 9-3 (games remaining: FIU, @Troy, North Texas, Arkansas State)
3. Louisiana-Lafayette 9-4 (@Denver, @North Texas, LA-Monroe)
4. Denver 8-5 (LA-Lafayette, LA-Monroe, North Texas)
5. Florida Atlantic 7-5 (@Western Kentucky, @MTSU, South Alabama, Troy)
6. North Texas 7-5 (LA-Monroe, LA-Lafayette, @UALR, @Denver)

With its final three games at home, you have to like Denver’s chances to finish 11-5, in which case they can do no worse than #5, and have an excellent shot at #3 (they just need FAU to lose a game). But a single loss would be devastating — and both Lafayette and North Texas are certainly capable of beating the Pioneers, and will have every motivation to try. The season finale against the Mean Green, Denver’s senior day, could end up having huge seeding implications. It’s a Sunday afternoon game, and I hope to be there with my girls.

Northern Colorado fights for its Big Sky life

While Denver battles for a #3 seed in the Sun Belt, and tries to at least avoid an opening-round game in the SBC tourney, Colorado’s other mid-major team, Northern Colorado — which I’ve been sorely neglecting on this blog (sorry!), due to being overly busy and barely having time to follow DU — is trying to avoid being prematurely eliminated from the postseason altogether.

One season after making its first-ever NCAA Tournament, UNC is in danger of having its conference title defense end in a regular-season loss. The Big Sky only allows the top 6 of its 9 teams into the conference tourney, and right now, after 6 losses in their last 7 games, the Bears are 4-8 in league play, tied for seventh place. In other words, if the season ended today, they’d be on the outside looking in.

The good news is, there is a whole cluster of teams above them with 6 losses, some of whom are going to have to lose some games. Here are the standings right now:

Weber State 11-1
Montana 11-1
Portland State 6-6
Montana State 6-6
Idaho State 6-6
Eastern Washington 5-6
Sacramento State 4-8
Northern Colorado 4-8
Northern Arizona 1-12

Northern Colorado has four conference games left: at home against Montana State tomorrow (which I’ll be at, celebrating #ALLCAPSDAY by tweeting in ALL CAPS), at Eastern Washington on February 15, at home vs. Weber State on February 25, and at Portland State at February 28.

I’m not going to bother with tiebreakers and scenarios at this point, with so many teams clustered together and a bunch of games to go. But with all of the six relevant teams having 4 or 5 games left, many of them against one another, I think it’s fair to assume that one or more of those 6-loss teams will end up with 8 or 9 losses before it’s all over. So UNC still has a chance. But they need to win, and win, and win. Indeed, they very well may need to win out, including against the class of the conference, Weber State. That’ll be a huge challenge. But first things first: they simply must end their losing streak tomorrow in Greeley against Montana State. Lose that, and it’s pretty much all over for the Bears.

Two sites to bookmark

Finding quality coverage of low profile mid-major (or “low-major”) teams like Denver and Northern Colorado, in typically one-bid leagues like the Sun Belt and Big Sky, can be tough. Local newspaper coverage is often somewhere between cursory and nonexistent, and the national sports media focuses almost entirely on schools above the Red Line, plus the small handful of mid-major teams (e.g., Butler, Gonzaga*, this year maybe Belmont) and leagues (e.g., CAA, MVC) that threaten to produce trendy “bracket busters” in March.

Luckily, the Sun Belt and Big Sky are both blessed to have new(ish) blogs that appear committed to providing excellent, detailed coverage of these small but competitive conferences throughout the coming season.

Big Sky Basketball (on Twitter at @bigskybball) is run by Jonathan Reed, a University of North Dakota alum and fellow Colorado resident. He appears to have started up the site in July, and has already logged an impressive 240 posts, including the aptly titled “Most Comprehensive Big Sky Preview You’ll Ever Read.” If you follow Northern Colorado or any other Big Sky team, his site is a must-bookmark and must-read. I’ll certainly be following it throughout the coming season.

Similarly, Sun Belt Basketball (on Twitter at @SunBeltBBall) is a brand-new site by Danny Spewak, a TV and radio news director in Columbia, Missouri and a Sun Belt/Big 12/MVC hoops writer. Much like Reed’s Big Sky coverage, Spewak’s writing on the Sun Belt is more thorough than just about anything you’ll read elsewhere about the SBC. He has done extensive season previews for each individual conference team, recapped and linked here. Here’s his detailed Denver preview. Really good stuff. Again, a must-bookmark and must-read.

If and when I ever get a sidebar blogroll set up here (Tumblr doesn’t make it easy), those sites will definitely be near the top. Keep up the great work, Jon and Danny!

*Gonzaga and Xavier are considered “exceptions” by the Mid-Majority, but with all due respect to that peculiar Red Line construct, I personally consider them mid-majors, and will treat them as such on this site. Particularly Gonzaga, of which I’ve been a fan since before they had a bandwagon.